3 Things to Know About the Latest Underwear Bomb Plot

This week the CIA said that its agents foiled a plot to bomb airlines with an undetectable underwear bomb. Although the plot failed, it may mean that an infamous bomb-maker is up to his old tricks?and remains a threat, and a top target for U.S. terrorist hunters. This attempted attack is also a reminder that Yemen is on the front lines of the cat-and-mouse struggle the U.S. once called the war on terror.

The Bomb-maker

The probable bomb builder is Ibrahim al-Asiri, and he?s a fanatic. The Saudi Arabian terrorist is based in Yemen, the origin of several terrorist bomb attempts on international aviation. According to Interpol, in 2007 Al-Asiri tried to create a militant cell inside Saudi Arabia; Saudi police killed six of this band when they raided the group?s headquarters. Ibrahim and his brother Abdullah escaped the trap and fled to Yemen. His brother went on to don a suicide bomb in a well-organized but failed attempt to kill a Saudi security official in 2009.

Why is al-Asiri the leading candidate for this bomb? It is similar in delivery and design to a bomb carried by the original "Underwear Bomber," a Nigerian man who tried to blow up an airplane on Christmas Day 2009. The FBI retrieved al-Asiri?s fingerprint off that bomb. That plot is widely ridiculed, since the explosives were sewn into the underwear of the operative. Yet the device was a success for the terrorists in that they got it past security and onto a plane.

The Bomb

This new underwear bomb had no metal and could pass by TSA screeners undetected?that?s what many observers in the media have fixated on since the CIA?s announcement. But the turly worrisome improvements to this bomb have more to do with the amount of explosives in the clothing and the method of setting it off.

The Christmas 2009 bombing hardware used the explosive PETN. The biggest flaw of that design was the detonation method; the bomber inserted a chemical liquid through a syringe, but rather than causing a chemical explosion, he just started a small fire. (A shock wave or explosion usually sets off PETN.) We don?t know yet what improvements the attackers made to their design. But we do know that finding an intact bomb is an intelligence gold mine that could reveal the tactics and strategies of the bombers. The intelligence community is certainly looking into the design of this bomb to gauge how the detonation is being improved and whether there could be a real risk to airliners.

The Battlefield

The conflict between Western intelligence agencies and terrorists has turned to Yemen, where al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has made serious gains, seizing towns and driving off Yemeni government officials. AQAP is an affiliate of Osama bin Laden?s group, though recent releases of his letters show AQAP?s plan for seizing Yemen was too aggressive for his taste. In a 2010 letter, bin Laden said he was for "halting the escalation in Yemen." Bin Laden?s focus was on inflicting damage to the United States and the West; he saw how seizing territory brings trouble, alienates Muslims, and leads to losses of skilled operatives and leadership. "We should not begin to attempt to establish a government in Yemen, even if the people revolted against the government," bin Laden wrote. "If the Yemenis were to begin a long battle against the security services, this is a matter that will weigh on the people."

AQAP leadership seems to want it both ways: fomenting violence and establishing a haven in Yemen while also launching international attacks on the West. As bin Laden feared, this has made Yemen a focal point for U.S. counter-terrorism efforts?American forces are now breaking up plots and hunting and killing leadership. Those strikes are usually carried out by unmanned aerial vehicles operated by the CIA, often in close conjunction with U.S. Special Operations Command.

On Sunday, Fahd al-Quso, a senior al-Qaida leader who was implicated in the 2000 boat attack on the USS Cole, was hit by a missile as he stepped out of his vehicle in southern Yemen. Rep. Peter King, chairman of the U.S. House Homeland Security Committee, said that the White House told him the foiled plot and air strike "are connected?that they are part of the same operation."

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